The recently concluded “Two Sessions” provided an encouraging policy framework, but without specifying the numbers needed to assess their potential impact on economic growth. Given how relevant this is to building business confidence, we have derived and quantified a set of leading indicators to track. If met, then there is a better chance China will achieve its economic goals this year.

• The impact of ‘AI plus’ could reach RMB 3 trillion, particularly with diffusion of the technology through manufacturing sectors.
• The opening of currently restricted sectors to private companies, including multinationals, could add a further RMB 1.5 trillion.
• A boost of RMB 2.2 trillion could come from reduced down payments on home purchases and a new round of consumption vouchers.
• To compensate for the trade war, Beijing will likely need to accelerate the reforms and strengthen its stimulus package.

About InterChina Consulting

InterChina Consulting has been serving international companies operating in China for over 30 years.